What’s Next?

I’ve been poking around dailykos and there seems to be this strange idea that bringing up the popular vote is Clinton changing the rules: this is flat-out untrue. The rules state that a candidate needs 2,025 votes to win the nomination, at this point we know that neither candidate can reach that number without superdelegates and there are no rules on how superdelegates should vote. It’s generally assumed they’ll go with electability tempered by legitimacy (i.e. if a candidate entered with a reasonable lead, they’re unlikely go with the other one because it’s they personally consider them more electable).The reason popular vote is important is because if Obama wins narrowly on pledged delegates and Clinton wins narrowly on popular vote, neither one can claim an overwhelming legitimacy to the superdelegates.

Clinton winning the popular vote doesn’t mean that superdelegates have a moral obligation to vote for her, it means they’re freed from the restraint of having one candidate being the obvious favourite of the electorate and can go with whoever they feel is more likely to succeed in November. These aren’t new rules: these are what the old rules mean when you get two candidates neck and neck going for the finish.